Supply Chain · Supply Risk

Know which item stops the line before it does

Most stockouts are visible weeks ahead if someone reads the ledger, the vendor list and the schedule together. The Final ERP reads them for you. It shows single-source items, long-lead commit dates, supplier health, items projected to run out, and what a supplier failure would do to your builds.

From signal to decision

Five steps, each a page in the product, each built on data you already keep.

1
Spot exposure
Single-Source Exposure lists items with one approved source and the qualified alternatives that could cover them.
2
Read supplier health
Supplier Risk shows the health of each supplier and how concentrated your spend is across the base.
3
Predict the stockout
Predictive Risk projects which items run out before the next reorder lands, from the live movement ledger, plus a composite failure-likelihood per supplier.
4
Decide and commit
The Long-Lead Planner gives the last safe date to order. Strategic Buys records risk buys and buffer stock decisions for critical items.
5
Test the plan
Risk Simulation takes a supplier and a scenario and shows which scheduled builds slip and by how many days.

Where the signals come from

Nothing here is entered twice. The pages read the ledger, the vendor list and the schedule.

Inside the product

Single-Source Exposure and Supplier Risk

Two views of the same vendor base. One lists items with only one approved source and names qualified alternatives. The other scores supplier health and shows concentration risk, so you can see both the weak item and the weak vendor.

Items with one approved source, with alternatives listed
Supplier health across the supply base
Concentration risk by spend and by item count

Predictive Risk

Forward-looking signals computed from the live movement ledger. The page projects which items stock out before a reorder lands and gives each supplier a composite failure-likelihood. Because it reads real movements, the number on this page matches the number on the stock page.

Projected stockout date per item from posted movements
Reorder landing date compared with run-out date
Composite supplier failure-likelihood

Long-Lead Planner and Strategic Buys

Turn a signal into an order. The planner lists long-lead items and the date you must commit to avoid line stoppage. Strategic Buys records the risk buys and buffer stock decisions you make for critical items, so the reasoning is kept with the decision.

Commit-by date per long-lead item
Buffer stock and risk buy decisions recorded
Critical items flagged for review

Risk Simulation

Stress-test the supply base before something breaks. Pick a supplier, choose fails or lead-time slip, and the page lists the scheduled builds that slip and the number of days each one moves. Use it to decide which second source is worth qualifying first.

Supplier fails or lead time slips, by any number of days
Affected builds listed with the slip in days
Run again with a different supplier to compare

Speaks your market's language

Risk teams use different words for the same problem; the pages hold the same facts.

Single source

Sole source · no alternate · one approved vendor

Strategic buy

Risk buy · buffer stock · safety stock decision

Lead-time slip

Delivery delay · schedule drift · late PO

Questions buyers ask

Where does the stockout prediction come from?: From the live movement ledger: every receipt, issue and transfer already posted. The page projects when on-hand runs out and compares that with when the next reorder lands. It never runs on demo data.
What counts as a single-source item?: An item with only one approved source on the approved vendor list. The page lists those items alongside any qualified alternatives, so you know which gaps can be closed by approving a second vendor.
How does the long-lead planner decide when to commit?: It works back from the need-by date on the requisition and the vendor lead time, and shows the last date you can place the order without stopping the line.
What does the risk simulation actually simulate?: You pick a supplier and a scenario, either the supplier fails or its lead time slips, and the page shows which scheduled builds slip and by how many days. It is a what-if on your real schedule, not a general score.
Is there a supplier reputation check?: Yes. A vendor reputation check looks the supplier up on the web and reports only from citation-verified sources, so nothing is invented.

Related supply chain pages:Goods Receipt Procurement Vendor Quotes Supply Chain overview

See your first stockout before it lands

Load items, vendors and opening stock, and Predictive Risk starts reading the ledger from the first movement.

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From signal to decision

Five steps, each a page in the product, each built on data you already keep.

Spot exposure

Single-Source Exposure lists items with one approved source and the qualified alternatives that could cover them.

Read supplier health

Supplier Risk shows the health of each supplier and how concentrated your spend is across the base.

Predict the stockout

Predictive Risk projects which items run out before the next reorder lands, from the live movement ledger, plus a composite failure-likelihood per supplier.

Decide and commit

The Long-Lead Planner gives the last safe date to order. Strategic Buys records risk buys and buffer stock decisions for critical items.

Test the plan

Risk Simulation takes a supplier and a scenario and shows which scheduled builds slip and by how many days.

Inside the product

Single-Source Exposure and Supplier Risk

Items with one approved source, with alternatives listed
Supplier health across the supply base
Concentration risk by spend and by item count

Predictive Risk

Projected stockout date per item from posted movements
Reorder landing date compared with run-out date
Composite supplier failure-likelihood

Long-Lead Planner and Strategic Buys

Commit-by date per long-lead item
Buffer stock and risk buy decisions recorded
Critical items flagged for review

Risk Simulation

Supplier fails or lead time slips, by any number of days
Affected builds listed with the slip in days
Run again with a different supplier to compare

Questions buyers ask

Where does the stockout prediction come from?

From the live movement ledger: every receipt, issue and transfer already posted. The page projects when on-hand runs out and compares that with when the next reorder lands. It never runs on demo data.

What counts as a single-source item?

An item with only one approved source on the approved vendor list. The page lists those items alongside any qualified alternatives, so you know which gaps can be closed by approving a second vendor.

How does the long-lead planner decide when to commit?

It works back from the need-by date on the requisition and the vendor lead time, and shows the last date you can place the order without stopping the line.

What does the risk simulation actually simulate?

You pick a supplier and a scenario, either the supplier fails or its lead time slips, and the page shows which scheduled builds slip and by how many days. It is a what-if on your real schedule, not a general score.

Is there a supplier reputation check?

Yes. A vendor reputation check looks the supplier up on the web and reports only from citation-verified sources, so nothing is invented.